If you've been eyeing a new PC build or budget laptop lately and noticed the prices look steeper than expected, there's a concrete reason for that. Memory costs have been climbing sharply, and according to new research from Counterpoint Research, the knock-on effect is about to hit the entire PC market hard.
Counterpoint forecasts that global PC shipments will contract by 5% in 2026 compared to 2025, dropping from roughly 275 million units down to approximately 262 million. The headline cause is straightforward: sustained surges in memory prices are forcing PC manufacturers to raise consumer prices, which is cooling demand across the board.
How the memory squeeze is reshaping what people buy
Here's the thing about memory price spikes: they don't hit all segments of the market equally. A $100 to $200 increase in RAM costs is a relatively minor inconvenience on a $1,500 or $2,000 gaming rig. On a $500 mainstream laptop, that same increase is a 20 to 40 percent jump in total cost. That's the kind of price hike that makes buyers walk away entirely.
This is exactly why Counterpoint's forecast, and a separate analysis from IDC reported by Tom's Hardware, paints a more complicated picture than a simple industry-wide slump. IDC's figures are even more pessimistic, projecting an 11.3% drop in global PC shipments in 2026, a steep revision from the 2.4% decline it projected back in November 2025. The total PC market value, however, is still expected to climb to $274 billion, because fewer units sold at higher prices can still produce a bigger dollar figure.
The memory shortage driving all of this traces back to a familiar culprit: AI infrastructure demand is consuming DRAM and NAND supply that would otherwise flow into consumer products.
The brands that will feel it most
Not every manufacturer is equally exposed. Counterpoint expects the biggest names, Dell, HP, and Lenovo, to experience the mildest contractions, given their scale, supplier relationships, and ability to absorb cost pressures. Second-tier brands like Acer and Asus are projected to see more pronounced sales declines.
Apple is the one outlier expected to actually grow sales in 2026, partly on the strength of new hardware releases. The company's tight vertical integration and premium positioning give it more room to maneuver when component costs spike.
danger
Counterpoint notes the PC sector remains more resilient than other consumer electronics categories, supported by a meaningful replacement cycle tied to Windows 11 upgrades and Microsoft's continued push for OS migration.What this means for gaming PC buyers specifically
Gaming PC sales may actually buck the broader trend. A separate report from JPR cited by PC Gamer's full breakdown of the Counterpoint findings pointed to booming gaming PC sales, with the high-end segment performing particularly well. The math checks out: gamers building or buying $1,500-plus systems are less deterred by memory price increases than someone shopping for a family laptop.
That said, even gaming builds are not immune. DDR5 and high-capacity NVMe storage prices have both moved upward, and there's little sign of relief on the near-term horizon as long as AI demand continues absorbing supply. Waiting for prices to normalize is a valid strategy in theory, but realistically that could mean years of holding off on an upgrade.
Gaming rigs less exposed to dip
PC sales peaked at over 300 million units in 2021 during the pandemic spending surge, fell through 2023, then recovered somewhat in 2024 and 2025. The 2026 projection represents a step back from that recovery, not a collapse, but a meaningful signal that component pricing is now a bigger factor in consumer decisions than it has been in years.
For anyone tracking gaming hardware costs, keep an eye on memory pricing trends through mid-2026. That's the clearest indicator of whether these forecasts hold or get revised further downward. For the latest gaming hardware news and analysis, make sure to check out more:
