Steam Wishlist Conversions

Steam wishlists have long been treated as a key indicator of player interest, but recent data continues to show that translating those wishlists into sales is far from predictable. According to new analysis from Simon Carless of GameDiscoverCo, the ratio between a game’s pre-launch wishlists and its first-week sales can vary by an enormous margin - anywhere from ten times lower to twenty times higher than the median.

On average, games launching with more than 10,000 wishlists in 2024 saw a 0.17x conversion rate. That means a title with 50,000 wishlists might expect around 8,500 total sales by the end of its first week. But the study shows just how wide the range really is: some games barely hit 10% of that number, while others vastly overperformed.

Even with this inconsistency, wishlists still serve as a helpful data point for developers. They offer a baseline for estimating outcomes and can reveal broader patterns when grouped by genre, release window, or pricing strategy.

Steam Wishlist Conversions

Seasonal Patterns and Conversion Fluctuations

The research tracked all Steam releases with over 25,000 wishlists at launch across the past two years. The median conversion rate landed at 0.15x, though results shifted slightly throughout the year. December proved the weakest month due to competition from the annual Winter Sale, while February and August showed minor spikes.

However, those monthly swings appear tied more to the types of games launching during those windows than to seasonality itself. February and August often feature niche or experimental titles, which tend to attract more targeted audiences. The takeaway is that timing alone isn’t enough to drive better conversions - genre and community engagement still matter most.

Steam Wishlist Conversions

The Role of Genre and Pricing

Two factors stood out as major influences on conversion: content rating and price point. Adult-only (NSFW) games on Steam tend to perform above average, supported by more dedicated audiences. Removing adult games from the dataset lowered the overall median slightly, from 0.15x to 0.14x, suggesting their impact is notable but not overwhelming.

Price had a stronger effect. Games priced above $10 saw their conversion rates drop to around 0.10x, signaling that lower-cost titles face less resistance at launch. When isolating games in this higher price range, early-year releases tended to perform a bit better than those in the crowded fourth quarter.

Interestingly, there’s no clear evidence that wishlist-to-sales ratios have worsened over time. GameDiscoverCo’s ongoing internal tracking since 2022 suggests stability, though the growing number of games on Steam makes standing out increasingly difficult.

Steam Wishlist Conversions

The Biggest Overperformers

When looking at the top 20 selling Steam games between September 2024 and mid-September 2025, every single one exceeded the expected median conversion rate of 0.11x. Standout examples include InZOI with a 3.2x multiplier, the co-op mountaineering title Peak at 266x, and the Chinese FMV game Revenge On Gold Diggers hitting a staggering 539x.

Many of these top-performing games shared certain characteristics. They were often social or co-op experiences that benefited from word-of-mouth, online play, and influencer coverage. Mage Arena, R.E.P.O., and Webfishing each saw massive success in part because of community-driven visibility.

The same pattern applied to recognizable sports titles like NBA 2K26 and EA Sports FC 25, which performed well thanks to loyal fan bases that typically skip the wishlist stage entirely and buy immediately at launch.

Steam Wishlist Conversions

Why Some Games Underperformed

Not every game managed to turn wishlist interest into sales. Titles with conversion rates around 0.07x or lower tended to share a few common traits. Their average Steam review score after one week was around 67%, compared to 91% among the top-performing titles, indicating weaker reception from players.

These games also spent longer in pre-release status - averaging 411 days on Steam before launch, compared to 214 for the stronger performers. A long runway often leads to slower wishlist growth, signaling lower engagement from potential buyers.

Sequels and smaller indie projects appeared frequently in the underperforming group. Sequels face tough comparisons with discounted earlier titles, while boutique indies often attract “curious” wishlists that don’t always translate into sales.

Steam Wishlist Conversions

What Developers Can Take Away

The findings reinforce a broader truth about modern game marketing: wishlists matter, but they’re not the whole story. A strong wishlist count helps indicate visibility, but it can’t fully capture post-launch traction, community enthusiasm, or viral moments that drive sales.

Games that succeed tend to combine steady pre-launch interest with strong early reviews, social engagement, and shareability. As the Steam marketplace continues to grow more crowded, developers will need to focus on these holistic factors rather than relying solely on wishlist totals.

Source: Simon Carless, GameDiscoverCo

FAQ: Steam Wishlist Conversions

What is a Steam wishlist conversion rate? A wishlist conversion rate measures how many players who wishlisted a game on Steam eventually buy it, typically within the first week of launch.

What is the average Steam wishlist conversion rate in 2025? According to GameDiscoverCo data, the median conversion rate for games with over 25,000 wishlists is around 0.15x, or roughly 15% of total wishlists converting into first-week sales.

Do cheaper games convert better? Yes. Games priced under $10 tend to have higher conversion rates because the lower price reduces purchase hesitation among players.

Do wishlist conversions vary by genre? They do. Adult titles and online co-op games tend to convert at higher rates than narrative or niche indie releases.

Is there a best time of year to launch on Steam? There’s no definitive best month, though December performs worse due to the Winter Sale period. Early-year months like February and August show slightly higher averages, likely due to fewer competing releases.

Are wishlist conversions declining over time? No major decline has been observed. However, as the number of games on Steam continues to rise, gaining significant wishlist traction has become more competitive.

Here’s a complete list of all the games mentioned: