Rhys Elliott of Alinea Analytics put it bluntly in his latest newsletter: "It really is a shame, as Saros is a fantastic game and frankly deserves better numbers than this."
That sums up the early commercial picture for Saros, Housemarque's follow-up to Returnal. Alinea's estimates peg the game at just over 300,000 copies sold and roughly $22 million in revenue across its first two weeks on PS5. Those are real numbers. They are also, by the analyst's own read, slower than what Returnal managed at launch, back when the PS5 had roughly 8 million units in homes compared to the 93 million it sits at today.
The Returnal comparison that stings
The math here is worth sitting with. Returnal launched in April 2021 into a starved market. The PS5 was barely six months old, supply was constrained, and Returnal was the first major first-party PlayStation game since launch day. Early adopters, who buy games at full price and buy them fast, had almost nothing else competing for their attention. Saros has launched into the opposite situation.
The PS5 install base is more than 11 times larger than it was when Returnal released. But that does not mean the addressable audience for a $70 niche roguelike has scaled at the same rate. The PlayStation hardcore, the group most likely to buy a difficult, original IP at full price on day one, is a finite pool. And that pool is exhausted right now.
Saros launched not long after Crimson Desert, Resident Evil Requiem, Hades 2 on PS5, and Pragmata. Alinea's overlap data shows 33% of early Saros players also played Pragmata in April, and 30% played Crimson Desert. These are the same people. The wallets and the hours are the same wallets and hours.
Saros combat in action
Who actually bought it, and how they are playing
Almost a third of Saros' first two weeks of sales came during the early-access period that kicked off April 28, two days before the full launch on April 30. That front-loading points directly at the Housemarque faithful. Alinea's data shows 78% of Saros players previously played Returnal, though that number is inflated by Returnal's time on PS Plus. The more telling figure is that around 17% of Saros' April players were also actively playing Returnal in April, getting familiar with the studio's style before jumping in.
The audience overlap with other PlayStation exclusives tells the same story. 56% of Saros players had previously played Ghost of Yotei, and 37% played Death Stranding 2. This is Sony's core audience doing what Sony's core audience does.
Here is where the data gets more encouraging. The players who did buy Saros are playing it seriously. Daily active users peaked at around 142,000 on May 2 and held between 115,000 and 140,000 for most of the first 10 days. Alinea estimates that 40% of players have logged over 15 hours, and 30% have crossed 20 hours. For a roguelike at this difficulty level, two weeks in, that is strong.
Completion rates are also higher than Returnal's were at the same point. Over 20% of Saros players have finished the game based on Act 3 trophy data, roughly double Returnal's completion rate at this stage. The decision to make Saros more accessible than its predecessor is showing up directly in the numbers.
Act 3 completion rate doubles Returnal
The $76M question and what comes next
Alinea flags a reported development budget of $76 million for Saros. At 300,000 copies and $22 million in revenue after two weeks, breaking even on that figure through PS5 sales alone looks like a stretch without significant price drops, PS Plus inclusion, or a PC release.
The Returnal precedent is relevant here too, and not just as a comparison point. Returnal arrived on Steam roughly two years after its PS5 launch and has generated close to $13 million in PC revenue, with nearly $5 million of that coming in its first month on the platform. That is a meaningful revenue tail for a game that was already years old. Saros has the same potential runway, assuming Sony opts for a PC port.
The broader pattern Alinea identifies is one Sony has been navigating for a while. Niche first-party exclusives are no longer just competing with each other. They are competing with every PlayStation game ever released, available at a discount, sitting in someone's backlog. The PlayStation hardcore will always show up for these games. The question is whether that audience alone can justify the budgets.
For a deeper look at how Saros plays and what makes it worth the price of entry regardless of sales charts, check out our full review. If you are just getting started, our Saros beginner's guide breaks down projectile colors, the Armor Matrix, and the Adrenaline meter so your first runs do not end in five minutes.
